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Top 10 Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, everyone's got'em, why not me?
Jan
9
Written by:
Saturday, January 09, 2010 1:38 PM
 Every year at this time, EVERYONE turns into Nostradamus. Well, since I have my own blog, I can too! But I'm going to do this a bit differently. Read on for a slightly slanted different view on 2010!
Every year at this time, EVERYONE turns into Nostradamus. Well, since I have my own blog, I can too! But I'm going to do this a bit differently. Here are my "predictions" for 2010. Let's check back here next year to see how right I was/am.
- Smart phones vs Google Android Super phone , WTF? It’s all the same thing, it’s a freak’n phone, you make calls, you can text, you can surf, ya it’s better than your grandfather’s phone, but it’s just a cell phone guys! This year people will start to see through marketing BS like this and demand to be treated like the smart people we are!
1 a. I also predict Microsoft will NOT learn their lesson and continue to beat their collective head's against the proverbial wall. I predict next year (2011) they'll finally develop a black eye, buy RIM and then, once and for all, will be able to compete against Apple's iPhone. I really wish they would pitch these mobile efforts and focus on Windows, .NET, Office, Visual Studio, SQL Server, mice, keyboards and the like. Distractions like this serve only to dilute your focus.
- Cloud computing? WTF? YAGNI for 95% of the developer public IMHO. I predict people will stop giving this topic huge press time and people will realize unless you're TicketMaster, Canada Revenue Agency/IRS, SETI or Microsoft, you don't need massive amounts of computing hardware "available at a moments notice for a nominal price tag." Computing on demand is what this really amounts to, and isn't Dell or HP finally selling computer cheap enough now a days? Cloud computing smells an AWEFUL lot like mainframe computers, yes, they're still around, but when was the last time you read about them in the trade rags?
2 a. Microsoft is going to continue pushing Azure and if you’re doing anything BUT .NET dev (~50%), you’ll just ignore it all, and for those of you .NET devs (the other ~50%), most of you probably don’t care about it AND if you do care, you probably don’t have any time for to learn it! I predict MS will contine to push this message onto deaf ears (sorry MS, I love ya, but this is my opinion).
- DSLR camera prices are dropping like Sun’s stock prices, very reminiscent of compact digital cameras ten years ago.
- CES 2010? WTF, there’s nothing new there?! 3D tv? eReaders? Really? That’s what’s new? Are you kidding me?
3a. 3D TV? Really? With the new US digital conversion last year, and the Canadian one next year, people have been dropping 2/3/4 grand on the LCD or plasma tvs, you think THEY’RE going to pitch that investment to get another 3D TV? Cable providers are ALREADY charging a premium for digital services, you think people are going to pay MORE on top of that for 3D services? In the immortal words of Jock McBile, GET STUFFED! Oh AND on top of that you either have to wear SPECIAL glasses or you have to be perfectly lined up to watch it? HUH? I want to watch TV, if I want an IMAX experience, I'll go to the bloody IMAX MAN! I predict 3D tvs will die a slow horrible death. 3b. eReaders? How are these improvements? Black and white devices? How is a $259USD Kindle an improvement over a $55 book? Sorry regular paper books are “the improvement” here people! I predict people will be blinded by the electrical impulses of these things until they're shocked by the amount of money they've dropped on these books!
- VS2010 will propel .NET to new levels, taking Silverlight and WPF with it! This is awesome news IMHO! WPF will be showcased in sales demos, prototypes and one off projects internally and in all kinds of marketing demos by Product Management showing you the NEXT version of their products.
- At the sametime though, Silverlight and WPF adoption will be held back because of layout manager learning curves. People are going to hold onto their WinForms Dock and Anchor properties as looooooooooooong as they can. This is very reminiscent of the Java Swing layout manager backlash in the late 90s. BUT the thing WPF has going for it that Swing didn't is performance! WPF apps scale well! How did Swing scale.....should I remind you of the Sun stock price again? DOH! LOL
- “Linux will take over the desktop”…….uh….hasn’t this one been on EVERYONE’S prediction list? This is so 90s! my prediction is the death of all these predictions! Enough already, if you haven’t taken over the world BY NOW, SHUT UP!
- Apple adoption will both increase dramatically (already, at work, six people have seven MACs among them, last year three family member’s bought MACs!) I may not like them but I have to respect’em!
- Hockey is going to have a really tough time KEEPING market share in the states, but will have a huge resurgence in Canada! And on top of that, Gary Bettman is going to have an VERY tough time keeping his job!
- Microsoft will consolidate the WPF, SL, WCF, ADO, WWF, MVC, Sharepoint, EF, TFS, Office technologies into something more digestible for the average developer! Time to demo a simple “hello world’ type of functionality in any of those areas is just too complicated and too long! Waaaaaay too long.
There you have it, my "predictions" for 2010! I hope you saw a bit of humour in there?! Have a great year and please come back and post some comments!
4 comment(s) so far...
Re: Top 10 Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, everyone's got'em, why not me?
Where's the e-book love? (or e-reader or whatever the heck they're calling digital books/e-Ink devices this week.) This is something that I'm eagerly awaiting, but refuse to dive into until one product/competitor/service gains significant market-share. (Right now, my bet is on whatever generation of Kindle amazon comes out with in 2011, but that's besides the point.)
Development wise, I think MVC will continue to grow in popularity. I'm still not convinced that WPF/Silverlight is the way to go on the desktop, but look forward to being proven wrong. I think we'll see increased adoption of agile practices as a feature/selling point, and a push towards distributed version control systems. (I've been playing with Mercurial lately and it's very slick!). I also think mocking will continue to grow in popularity and ease as the various frameworks continue to mature.
I agree with you that cloud computing still isn't ready for prime time and is mostly an overloaded buzzword term. There are definitely situations and needs where it makes sense, but for the majority of products/services it isn't yet cost-effective. Mind you, the longer we wait the cheaper it'll get so there's definitely a point where I could see that happening, but I don't think we're there yet. One thing that I am interested to see develop is the availability of private cloud technologies. I think we'll see more businesses/organizations jump onboard with private clouds than with 'public' clouds since its an easier sell to stakeholders (ie, all the data/traffic stays private and its simply racks and racks of servers to achieve the redundancy). Thankfully, I think Microsoft has the advantage here over VMWare with Hyper-V at least until VMware's marketting team pulls their heads out of their arses and simplifies its licensing and product lines.
By Peter Bernier on
Sunday, January 10, 2010 2:24 PM
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Re: Top 10 Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, everyone's got'em, why not me?
Fun read :) ... but as for the smart phones, I think you may forget that a lot of people (me especially) use my smart phone (iPhone) as more of a very small portable 'computer', so to speak. I use the "phone features" about 1-2 a week max. Its all these 'super' features that a lot of geeks are looking for (data services).
By Shane on
Sunday, January 10, 2010 2:24 PM
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Re: Top 10 Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, everyone's got'em, why not me?
Peter, so you're an ebook devotee? DOH! But not too blinded by love I read? Good for you! For you, I hope they certainly do improve them, but like you, I agree, they're more hype than delivering on that hype right now.
I know you love MVC and mocking, and talking with you keeps my interest peaked and keeps those topics on my radar. You're enthusiasm is certainly contagious! LOL And I do hope WPF/SL proves you wrong, but there is a steep learning curve IMHO which is a big hinderance to learning it, and devs have to learn it before they can produce cool stuff for the masses to absorb and start bragging about themselves.
As for your agile comments, I agree! We're doing it at work, and I love it! As one smart person (BC) said at work, if you call it something else, ANYTHING else, you can usually get immediate buy in from everyone. People who have done it before (usually improperly or didn't give it it's fair chance) usually are predisposed to a negative opinion and refuse to try it again. But call it something else and they're cool with it. Interesting beings those humans! LOL
re cloud and buzzwords
YUP! LOL I also agree with your comments about some situations where it makes sense, but......
re VMWare
Interesting comments there! We used to have some MS Viretual PCs at the office, but now we're all VMWare, it just seems to work better.
Shane, glad you enjoyed and had some fun with it! That was the overall goal. :> LOL Oh, I didn't forget you (you were two of the MACs I quoted LOL) and I do realized you are one of the few who use their "device" as a desktop extension. And that is very cool! But most people use their "smart phone" as well, just a cell phone I find at least. The next device I'm waiting to see take off is the BlackBerry Presenter (plug in overheard unit and you can give PPTs via your BB! Very cool, affordable and about time IMHO!).
My main beef here was Google's marketing arm going psycho and calling their Android phone a "Super Phone" because their phone did so much more than the "smart" Apple iPhone. I completely disagree with both of those decisions, it's just another flipp'n suped-up phone and their marketing people should go back to MBA school where they can do less damage there!
Thank you both, Peter and Shane for your comments! I value your inputs AND YOUR ENTHUSIASM for technology! Talking with you guys here (and in person) always invigorates people around you!
Resources:
BlackBerry Presenter: http://na.blackberry.com/eng/devices/accessories/presenter/index.jsp?iid=Presenter_Homepage&CPID=KNC-SEMD_rimggl89600000021358s&HBX_PK=rimggl89600000021358s&
By phenry on
Sunday, January 10, 2010 2:51 PM
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Re: Top 10 Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, everyone's got'em, why not me?
COOL! Turns out I'm NOT the only one who things MS should buy RIM!
Silicon Alley Insider, 10 Tech Deals That Will Reshape The Industry in 2010
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-tech-deals-well-see-this-year-2010-1#rim-must-sell-and-we-think-it-should-go-to-microsoft-7
By phenry on
Monday, January 11, 2010 9:51 AM
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